The Official 2018 Midterms Election Thread

Discussion in 'Race, Religion, Science and Politics' started by Nick Delmacy, Oct 23, 2018.

  1. Nick Delmacy

    Nick Delmacy is a Verified MemberNick Delmacy Da Architect
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    states-house.jpg

    We're officially two weeks away from the 2018 Midterms Election. For the few political junkies in the Squad here, this will be the official thread for all discussions related to the election.

    Tons of Governor, House of Representatives and Senate seats are a up for grabs on November 6th, 2018.

    Here we'll throw around punditry terms like "Blue Wave," "Turnout Game" and "Voter Suppression."

    Thankfully, what we won't see here is people deflecting serious conversation with conspiracy theories and diatribes on their disdain for Hillary Clinton. Guess what, she's not running (this time).

    Instead, we'll discuss the campaigns of politicians like Stacey Abrams of GA, Andrew Gillum of FL, Beto O'Rourke of TX and many others.

    screen_shot_2018-10-12_at_10.28.54_pm.png

    According to poll aggregate sites, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, the Democrats have a 7-8 percentage point lead in the generic ballot for taking over the House of Representatives.

    Screen Shot 2018-10-23 at 10.32.43 AM.png

    The GOP has an 80% chance of holding on to the Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight (and many other sources).

    Screen Shot 2018-10-23 at 10.33.10 AM.png

    As for the Governor's races, both RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight forecasts that the Dems have polling advantage so far and may end up governing nearly 200 million Americans (out of 330 mil).

    Screen Shot 2018-10-23 at 10.29.42 AM.png

    1537046968838.jpg
     
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  2. RolandG

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    Stacey Abrams has an uphill climb despite what the polls say. Polling for Democrats in this state haven't always reflected the correct outcome. I think she will come close unless there is a massive get out the effort drive. Her opponent, Kemp, is still the Secretary of State giving him power of the very election in which he's running. This is outrageous to me. He's already demonstrated that he will do anything including shutting down polling places in black counties in order to help his own cause. How he was able to remain SOS while running for office at the same time is beyond crazy but we talk about voting rights in third world countries.
     
  3. Nick Delmacy

    Nick Delmacy is a Verified MemberNick Delmacy Da Architect
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    Yeah I have slim hope for Abrams. Admittedly she’s a little too Bernie-progressive for me but I’ll vote for her nonetheless.

    I do think Dems & Liberals will do well in the House though. We have a little momentum. And despite what the pundits say, the Kavanaugh fiasco help motivate a lot of progressives into voting this term.
     
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  4. RolandG

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    Unfortunately, the media is reporting that Republicans are killing Democrats in early voting in all early voting states except Nevada. I think the Kavanaugh fight has had the unintended consequence of galvanizing republicans as well. If Dems can't at least take back the house in this environment, then we are DONE.
     
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  5. BlackguyExecutive

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    As, a native Floridian, I returned my Vote-By-Mail Ballot and surely voted for Mayor Andrew Gillum. I do think the political pendulum will swing leftward.

    I do think if Stacy Abrams and Andrew Gillum win in November, it would be a significant blow to white supremacy in the South. Also, Sean Shaw is running to be Florida's first black Attorney General. I suspect if they win there will be a lot of white tears and anger.

    I have been following reporting coming from the Southern Poverty Law Center, and I think if people like Abrams and Gillum do win we will need to immediately boost their security given the chatter coming out of these white nationalists and hate groups.
     
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  6. Nick Delmacy

    Nick Delmacy is a Verified MemberNick Delmacy Da Architect
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    I have a problem with that narrative. The Kavanaugh hearings maybe got the Republican voters to pay attention earlier, but they were ALWAYS gonna get galvanized eventually. Its the midterms, historically they always get hyped for these off-elections. I think we would have seen this GOP bump regardless of the Kavanaugh thing or not.

    The real story is that Dems and Liberals are just as galvanized during the midterms for the first time in my memory.

    Also, not to play conspiracy theorist but the media benefits from making the election look as close as possible for the horse race aspect (and ratings).
     
  7. Nick Delmacy

    Nick Delmacy is a Verified MemberNick Delmacy Da Architect
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    Their wins would be a blow but just as we saw with Obama, that only could be a temporary sting to racists until the next election.
     
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  8. BrentForays

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    Andrew Gillum is the only one I'm sure is gonna win. Beto will lose in Texas. I'm not sure how anyone can actually vote for someone like Ted Cruz. Dude is as fake as a 3 dollar bill. Ben Jealous is losing big in Maryland. And Stacey Abrams will come very very close. It just depends on AA voter turnout and whether these some of these white women get a mind of their own and not listen to their husbands. Yes, there are women who literally vote the way their husbands tell them to.
     
  9. Nick Delmacy

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    Will these Bomb Threats targeting Dems (and CNN) be a factor in the Midterms?
     
  10. BlackguyExecutive

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    This is how the left should realize they are winning. This kind of domestic terrorism is a result of desperation, likely coupled with White Rage (See Below). Americans have short memories. I don't know how much these provocations will affect the Midterm unless they are sustained. It will be interesting to see the political posturing from both the Democrats and Republicans.

    I hope the Democrats remain focused on winning the election and not get distracted by these terror provocations.

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. African King

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    Voting for Stacy Abrams then just straight Democrat. That is all.
     
  12. machoBLKnerd

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    man georgia must do better. i watched the gubernatorial debate yesterday and it looked like it was filmed in somebody's poorly lit garage lol

    for several mins, they even had to suspend the event after it started after some loud alarm went off. compared to florida's, the debate just felt janky and low budget. then there was a libertarian candidate who sounded like a complete idiot. abrams easily outshined him and kemp.

     
    #12 machoBLKnerd, Oct 26, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2018
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  13. hannibal

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    I would have sex with gillum.
     
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  14. machoBLKnerd

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    good sign for dems: yahoo says, compared to 2014, early voting by young ppl (18-29) in texas and georgia has increased by nearly 5x.

    georgia: young voter turnout up 476 per cent, african-american early voting up 165 per cent, and hispanic turnout up 571 per cent.

    texas: young voter turnout is currently up 508 per cent, while rates for blk and hispanic voters rates more than doubled.

    penn, nevada, florida and arizona: early young voting so far has at least doubled. in pennsylvania, 4x.

    my take: technically, it's possible that this surge represents voters who did vote in the last midterm, but who simply decided to cast their ballots early this time around. however, it's unlikely that this could explain ALL of the surge, so dems should be able to take many positives from this.
     
    #14 machoBLKnerd, Nov 2, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
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  15. Infinite_loop

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    all these early voting turnouts look promising for democrats(but don't want to jinx it) and as expected, republicans are getting desperate. Kemp tried to pull a Comey talkin about "democrats tried to hack the voting system" and he alerted the FBI....yea, ok Chad nice try
     
  16. Nick Delmacy

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  17. OckyDub

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    Looking at the results and thinking the same thing I did back in 2016.

    ...you can't out vote hatred and white supremacy in a country with them in power and the majority.
     
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  18. Nick Delmacy

    Nick Delmacy is a Verified MemberNick Delmacy Da Architect
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    The night isn't over.

    The Senate was always a long shot.
     
  19. RolandG

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    If Dems take the house, I think that's enough of a check on Trump for now but Dems will have problems for the presidential election if we can't win statewide in Florida and Ohio. Not a disaster tonight but i smell trouble ahead for democrats.
     
  20. Nick Delmacy

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    Yeah a big problem is Dems, Libs and Progressives are so stubborn and sensitive. They either get unmotivated if a EVERY person they vote for doesn't win or they stubbornly think voting doesn't matter and stay home.

    Republicans and Conservatives play the long game...even if they lose a big election, they patiently turn their attention to smaller elections and wait for their next chance at bat in the big elections.
     
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  21. Nick Delmacy

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    Okay, Dems tak the House...Lets let Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff clean the swamp!
     
  22. RolandG

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    Pelosi really needs to retire. She is what ails the democratic party. The average age of the Democratic leadership has to be around 80. Ridiculous.
     
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  23. Nick Delmacy

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    This narrative is false. We need someone who's a wolf, knows how to whip votes and can get shit done. Name one other Dem in the congress with the relationships to turn votes if needed... Don't fall into the GOP narrative. Mitch McConnell's old ass gets shit done on their side, we need someone just as ruthless.
     
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  24. RolandG

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    Pelosi can whip votes but, as SOTH, she is often put out as the spokesperson for the Democratic Party and she is a horrible spokeswoman. I mean she stutters all over the place and can't articulate a clear vision for democrats to sell to the american public.
     
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  25. Nick Delmacy

    Nick Delmacy is a Verified MemberNick Delmacy Da Architect
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    Man, this is another Dem problem...we need everyone to be a celebrity instead of a competent politician.
     
  26. RolandG

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    Wait a cotton pickin minute. Who said anything about being a celebrity. I would just prefer someone more articulate than Pelosi. Did you watch her speech tonight? Who is she winning over with that? Yeah she can arm twist to get votes but that doesn’t matter if we can’t articulate our party platform. Pelosi is NOT a good spokesperson.
     
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  27. Nick Delmacy

    Nick Delmacy is a Verified MemberNick Delmacy Da Architect
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    My point is no one was ever moved by a John Boehner Paul Ryan speech to the public...what matters is whipping votes behind closed doors. She has a proven track record in this area and she has the seniority.
     
  28. RolandG

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    You are correct, however, what is she going to be whipping votes for? I bet that she forces the New Democratic caucus to the center as she did the last time she was speaker and force votes on things that are not all that progressive. But she’ll whip the hell outta those votes.

    Also, as speaker, she will have to counter Trump and she has not been nearly as effective countering his rhetoric thus far. I don’t foresee that changing because we are in the majority. We still need a leader.

    I still say we are in trouble unless we can find another Obama leading up to 2020. Someone who can deflect what’s sure to be gross vile spewed by Trump for his re-election bid. I see no one in the current crop so far. Very disappointing.
     
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  29. Nick Delmacy

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    This is my point about Pelosi. None of the other folks in congress are better options to lead. She may not have Obama charisma, but at least Pelosi has more influence in congress and DC than any of the others.
     
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  30. OckyDub

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    Folk is failing to understand the dynamics of politics have change. Far Right supremacists have taken over multiple national governments across the globe. The most powerful country in the world elected a far right white supremicists. It was the go signal to empower these types around the world to galvanize and gain power.

    My point is democrats, liberals, progressives, need a just as / more powerful presentation to counter and it seems on many local and national fronts we fail.
     
  31. Winston Smith

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    Lol, Pelosi and Schiff ARE the swamp...as is Trump, McConnell, and every Republican and Democrat currently in DC. I agree with both (yep) you and @RolandG. Dems and Pelosi need to learn to be intelligent in getting shit done as you mention, like Mcconnell; Personality is not a substitute for programmatic power.

    But I think @RolandG is correct that it’s not a good thing, in light of millennial voters who are tired of the same old geezer approaches of the current DNC leadership, that the speakership get automatically handed to Pelosi.

    Gillum could have won with more GOTV support etc from the national party (hell by himself without the cowardly establishment’s “race to the center” bullshit, he was within 1%), and Abrams’ could have had a stronger showing. That Beto was within margin of error territory with Cruz WITHOUT the national DNC support that he should have gotten shows says there’s something new and generational afoot.

    Unfortunately the national party learned nothing from the Beto, Abrams, Gillum and Ocasio push and will try to beat back new, young progressive voices returning to the old ways that got them trounced in the first place in 2016. And in my neck of the woods, it’s not a good sign that Illinois folk decided to go back to one-party, corrrupt Daley family machine type rule (shutting out progressive and alternative black voices) which has financially ruined the state, BUT at least there’s a small contingent of new generationof Dems here like Sean Casten—-business owner, entrepreneur, environmental scientist (non-lawyer YAY!!!!) who can rationally explain his position with data not brain dead Trump emotionalism—-who understands good old fashioned GOTV to beat the shit out of Republican incumbents


    And progressive black nurse (non-lawyer YAY!!) Lauren Underwood who ran on an unashamedly progressive health policy platform in a majority white district: The war against the Peolsi wing is ON!

    [​IMG]

    Democrat challengers Underwood, Casten beat GOP incumbent Reps. Hultgren, Roskam
     
    #31 Winston Smith, Nov 7, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2018
  32. machoBLKnerd

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    looks like dems are still trying to fight this in georgia.

    20181107_151847.png

    20181107_151817.png
     
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  33. RolandG

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    Lucy Mcbath defeated Karen Handel in Suburban Atlanta. @Nick Delmacy , isn't this your district? You should be doing a praise dance.
     
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  34. BrentForays

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    Its interesting that the losers last night (Beto, Stacey, and Andrew) would potentially make way better presidential candidates than washed up Joe Biden, Corey Booker, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. Eff the governorships. Go for the big seat. Beto particularly was beat Trump's ass nationally.
     
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  35. RolandG

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    I don't know about Stacey but I agree that Beto and Andrew could definitely give Trump a run for his money.
     
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